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PROBABILISTIC RISK ANALYSIS AND BAYESIAN DECISION THEORY IBD

SPRINGER
11 / 2022
9783031163326
Inglés

Sinopsis

The book shows how risk, defined as the statistical expectation of loss, can be formally decomposed as the product of two terms: hazard probability and system vulnerability. This requires a specific definition of vulnerability that replaces the many fuzzy definitions abounding in the literature.áThe approach is expandedáto more complex risk analysis with three components rather than two, and with various definitions of hazard.áEquations are derived to quantifyáthe uncertainty of each risk component and show how the approach relates to Bayesian decision theory. Intended for statisticians, environmental scientists and risk analysts interested in the theory and application of risk analysis, this book provides precise definitions, new theory, and many examples with full computer code. The approach is based on straightforward use of probability theory which brings rigour and clarity. Only a moderate knowledge and understanding of probability theory is expected from the reader.

PVP
61,95